Research

This paper examines the institutional factors associated with college closures and enrollment changes from 2002 to 2022, using data from the Integrated Postsecondary Education Data System (IPEDS) through the National Center for Educational Statistics (NCES). Using logistic LASSO regression, logistic regression, and quadratic growth models, we identify key predictors of institutional vulnerability for closure. Our analysis pays particular attention to private religious colleges in comparison to public non-religious (including those with Catholic affiliations) and private non-religious institutions. Results show that institutions with limited financial reserves—particularly those in the bottom quartile ofkey financial indicators—and those with smaller enrollment sizes are at a greater risk of closure or continued enrollment decline. Among sectors, private Catholic colleges show the steepest enrollment contraction over time, marked by early peaks and sharp decelera-tion. These patterns suggest that the Catholic colleges are disproportionately affected by sector-wide challenges and particularly vulnerable to fluctuations in student demand and resource availability. The findings emphasize the need for sector-specific monitoring and highlight the potential need for targeted policy and financial responses if long-term viability is economically consequential.

This paper examines the relationship between Catholic schooling and student performance in Math and ELA using a national sample of students from Catholic and public schools who participated in the NWEA MAP assessments both before and since the COVID-19 pandemic. We assessed achievement differences between public and Catholic school students using longitudinal student-level data from 2017-2022, spanning Kindergarten through Grade 12, and estimating quadratic growth models, gain-score, and student fixed-effects models. Catholic school students began with higher predicted test scores at baseline but their subsequent growth was generally comparable to, and in some cases, lower than that of public school students, despite Catholic school students generally ending academic years at higher academic levels. Learning disruptions were evident in both ELA and Math during the post-COVID period. Public schools demonstrated stronger performance in Math, narrowing the previous gap with Catholic schools. Student fixed-effects estimates indicate that Catholic school participation led to lower ELA and Math academic growth scores among all students and those in the Grade K–8 subgroup.